Any agreement requires a compromise, and compromise means you have to trust the other side to follow through. Frankly, I do not think this basic confidence exists on either side.

Even with these unofficial meetings, the stalemate is likely to continue for a long time, because it's unlikely they'll lead to changes in policy.

So as long as he doesn't say anything too provocative, Beijing's wait-and-see policy is likely to continue.

The words 'stakeholder' upgraded China's status in foreign relations and the global system. The only uncertainty in Chinese circles is whether it represents the ideas of the administration. Does the key term 'stakeholder' also represent the ideas of Secretary (of State Condoleezza) Rice, or the thinking of the President himself?

Most Chinese leaders are not naive. Their hopes for his speech aren't too high. But the mainstream government attitude is that Chen's position has been quite moderate both during and after his election. So as long as he doesn't say anything too provocative, Beijing's wait-and-see policy is likely to continue.

The plea agreement is a very good compromise.