As this problem is unlikely to resolve itself quickly, we remain concerned that 2006 forecasts could be too aggressive.

It's relatively limited at the moment, but if this does not resolve itself quickly there could be a very undesirable effect. Inflation is going to be higher than it would otherwise, against an otherwise healthy economic picture.

The miss appears to be weakness in the trading portion of the Investment Bank unit, a frequent culprit due to its excessive volatility versus peers.

They really have built a very impressive investment-banking capability. They won't always be No.1, but they clearly have been effective in merging their investment and commercial banks.

The U.S. origination business may be slowing while it is growing in other markets.

Warburg has been taken by surprise by the strength of Morgan Stanley, Merrill and Goldman in M&A underwriting in Europe.