Because the economy is so strong, import growth is also very strong, and that import growth is eroding trade surpluses. Surpluses of more than a billion a month might be over.

The strong domestic economy should cushion the impact of an anticipated slowdown in Hong Kong's trade growth this year.

Trade is a drag (on growth) and that tends to hit manufacturing harder than the rest of the economy.

Where the credit is really due is in the early part of Greenspan's tenure: being faced with the aftershocks of the Wall Street crash in 1987 and dealing with that quite well. He confronted some very serious potential crises and got us to a point where we avoided them and are better off than we might have been otherwise.

So you put a little Jamaica in the fund, a little South Africa, a little Thailand. In a global crisis, all three will be a dog. But if you're a [hedge fund] manager, you don't care. You just want to offer as much diversification as possible, with as much yield as possible.

On the flip side, there should be more concern in Brazil.