Concern about supply means the risk premium in prices is on the rise. Iran is the major problem, but Nigeria coming on top makes matters worse.

Yes, there is less supply in Nigeria but that is not enough to cut into oversupply.

Investors are now going to build a higher risk premium into their bottom line.

Slower growth in producer prices makes China's exports more competitive, which means the nominal exchange rate can be allowed to appreciate without hurting exporters.

The reason for the rise is the increase in the geo-political risk premium because of the situation in Iran.

I think it's mostly the uncertainty regarding the situation in Iran and the very clear decision of the IAEA to refer the country to the UN Security Council.