Consumers have access to cash. They took out a record $804 billion in mortgage equity withdrawals in the third quarter.

As long as housing prices don't go down, consumers have more equity they can borrow against. If mortgage rates go up another 1.25 or 1.5 percent and pierce 7 percent -- watch out. That's when the housing bubble bursts and consumers would cut back on spending a lot.

Remember that we're only on our third record, which is not really a lot. We live in the era of trilogies, and we definitely feel like the first three records mark the end of a phase for us.

We took some terrible shots. Our kids didn't come out and play disciplined in the third quarter. Once they get a lead, they've got you because they don't miss their free throws.

The third quarter was special.

They got a little hot in that third quarter. But we didn't still didn't give up.