Core exports are trending up at about 10 percent year over year, not enough to prevent a widening of the deficit.

This may mark the start of an upturn in exports, but it's too soon to be sure.

The gains were uneven, however, with small declines in clothing and electronics, a decent 0.7 percent rise for general merchandise and a huge leap for non-store retailers. Provided January holds up -- surveys suggest so far, so good -- the overall holiday season will have been pretty good.

The details are not as important as the overall message, which is that to the extent that the U.S. economy faces an inflation threat, it is not coming from core goods prices.

There's no question that these numbers have been persistently disappointing in recent weeks, ... It's not that layoffs are accelerating again -- we think the underlying trend [of claims] is stable at about 390,000 -- it is that we expected clearer signs of an outright decline [in the number of claims].

This increase reflects the upturn in the markets in recent weeks; any further gain in the near-term requires a further firming of stocks,