Demand is so high and capacity is so low, we can go from comfortable to uncomfortable inventories within a month.

We have high crude prices. We have low inventories. We have strong demand. All of that would be a recipe for a taut market even with refineries (running at full capacity).

There is a high probability of further disruptions in Nigeria as we haven't seen the end of the attacks.

There is a high probability of further disruptions in Nigeria as we haven't seen the end of the attacks. The big problem is that going into the driving season, Nigerian refined crude is important for the US market, and if there are further disruptions, we are going to get a pop in crude prices.

Even if there is a stock draw, unless it is substantially and unexpectedly high, I would not expect prices to go up above $60 as the near-term market is still heavily weighed down by high inventory levels and the warmer weather.

But given the low level of inventories, strong global demand and lack of a cushion, we believe the market still has and will continue to have an upside risk.