Economists are notoriously bad at predicting turning points. They're like credit ratings agencies, they don't anticipate things very well.

Those are all economists. They used to be employed by Wall Street, and now they're consultants.

There are a lot of crosscurrents now, but falling yields might indicate that demand for credit is slowing down and that the Fed, by holding the fed funds rate where it is, is actually keeping rates all along the curve from falling to their equilibrium level, or to the level where would they would more naturally go.

The Fed is a price fixer; it fixes the price of short-term credit. If there's an increase in demand for credit, interest rates want to rise. But because the Fed is fixing the price of credit to keep rates from rising, it has to create more reserves or allow banks to create more money, and that's what leads to bubbles.

I don't believe in right-angled turning points.

Trends in January and February are notoriously bad at predicting upcoming activity. Is the market taking a breather? Or is it starting to tumble? It's impossible to say, there's nothing really ominous in the numbers, but we won't know for another couple of months.