For Senator McCain, his reputation as a maverick tirelessly working to reform the culture of Washington appears to be exactly what voters want.

Cautious, careful people always casting about to preserve their reputation or social standards never can bring about reform. Those who are really in earnest are willing to be anything or nothing in the world's estimation, and publicly and privately, in season and out, avow their sympathies with despised ideas and their advocates, and bear the consequences.

An aggressive, well-run campaign focused on your accomplishments can turn this race into an extremely competitive toss-up race in the general election.

From the beginning, this is a campaign I thought she could win. But it's become too tough an environment.

If the political environment does not change, the outcome of the 2006 elections becomes increasingly a roll of the dice dependent on how the campaigns are run, party and interest group resources and the intensity of base voters to turn out to vote.

If this environment holds, you have to assume it's going to tip for the Democrats.