Germany is a split economy. Wage moderation made German companies internationally competitive in the first place. If wages only rise moderately, people may feel optimistic, but they simply don't have that much to spend.

We see a big upward trend in energy prices, but without that, the inflation rate is going down. The ECB looks at the headline figure, and as long as it's above 2 percent, it's a reason to increase rates.

Inflation is still above target and as long as the economic data keeps coming in strong we expect the ECB will raise rates.

We've probably seen the peak in confidence. The most optimistic growth forecasts are for about 2 percent this year, but that's not really a boom. We've seen some euphoria, but now we're returning to more realistic levels.

Global demand remains the most important factor, and the situation looks good. We should see a rebound in growth in the first quarter and a slightly positive tendency in industrial production over the coming months.

We want to use these four years to make Germany stronger for the future.