Growth was lower than expectations because of inventories -- which will need to be rebuilt -- while moderating employment costs will make it less costly for firms to hire additional workers. The still-strong level of wage and salary should buoy consumption.

Drew Matus

Expectations Growth Will

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Modestly weaker-then-expected capital goods orders data suggest a slight shift in growth toward Q4 away from Q1 but the simple fact is that the data clearly suggests that factories are going to be humming throughout Q1.

We have had an extraordinary period of job growth the last four months. The bond market is always worried about higher growth, and the equity market is concerned that the Fed might be more likely to overshoot, and take rates too high.

From his comments, it is clear that the US Fed will keep raising rates, hoping to bring the housing market to a very soft landing.

We expect the recent jump in retail gasoline prices to push down confidence. Optimistic views around the labor market will likely offset some of the gasoline sticker shock.

ConfidenceLaborWill

Higher oil increasingly will creep into the indicators. Today, it biased the trade gap higher and pushed up import prices and also impeded the consumer sentiment number.