He's been very clear. The Fed may take a pause for a month or two, but that doesn't mean it's the end of the rate hikes.

Sentiment on Wall Street has gotten to an 18-month low. When sentiment gets this bad, you know the bounce is pretty darn close.

Sentiment is building that the Fed may pause for a while after raising rates to 5 percent next month. That helps shorter-maturity debt, especially two-year notes.

There's a point at which the Fed has to indicate that it has to pause and look around for a while, and that could come in these minutes, or the next ones.

The Fed is going to finish at about 5 percent, or certainly pause at 5 percent.

A pause by the Fed would give a temporary boost to stocks.