His academic work on inflation targeting will be of great comfort to many market analysts and investors who are beginning to fret about inflation,

The higher energy costs will put a squeeze on both businesses and households. They're spending so much on energy - the households on gasoline, the airlines on jet fuel, for example - that they'll have to curtail elsewhere.

We seem to be able to absorb serial shocks.

The Fed has been singularly unsuccessful in cooling down the hot U.S. housing market, primarily because its rate hikes have had little impact on long-term interest rates — so far,

We are headed for a Katrina-induced soft patch, but I would not interpret this as the early warning of a recession.

There's not a lot of relief in sight. I would not be surprised to see the monthly deficit go above $60 billion by fall, and stay there.