I do think a pause is coming along at some point. My guess has been all along that a pause was more likely in the first meeting of next year than in December. The October employment report strengthens that view.

I don't think he is going to go way out on a limb.

He had anticipated every question. And he knew how to answer them without ruffling any feathers.

Not only is he as mentally acute as the average 77-year-old, he's as acute as the average 27-year-old. He has a phenomenal mind and very good judgment, ... People close to the decision-making at the Fed are almost unanimously in great praise of him, as I would be. I think it's a wonderful thing for the Fed and for the country that he's being kept on.

He is not going to stray far.

I think the Fed needs to worry about the possibility it's flirting with deflation if it lets this go too far. When nominal rates get down toward zero, the Fed starts running out of ammunition.