I think there's a one word summary out of this thing: War.

Given the moves in the markets, you have to wonder whether Japan is going to surprise on the upside on growth.

One of the biggest fears, from an economic point of view, would have been a catastrophe in the oil fields. That hasn't happened and it looks like it probably won't happen. In a sense, that's a bigger deal for the economy than if the war lasts one week or four weeks.

The economy has hit an air pocket, at minimum.

The idea that there is going to be a war is thoroughly accepted in the financial markets right now. But nobody can know what the exact contours are going to be.

I personally think that it's going to be quick, that the Iraqi army will join the Italian army in historical folklore.