I wouldn't be surprised if as many as 25 percent of New Jersey voters said they are supporting Kean because of his father's record, or because they like his father.

The bottom line is that even when things are equal in New Jersey, the Democrats win.

Sen. Menendez has a 6-point lead in his race for re-election mainly because New Jersey is a Democratic state more fed up with the Bush administration and the war in Iraq than it is with high taxes and the budget crisis at home.

Sen. Menendez holds a narrow lead in this race only because there are more Democrats than Republicans in New Jersey.

While a majority of the voters view both candidates as being honest and trustworthy, the number who did not jumped eight points for Mr. Forrester and four for the senator.

While voters think the legislative pay raise is excessive and want it repealed, it does not appear that lawmakers will suffer greatly at the polls for making themselves the second-best paid Legislature in the country.