If you aren't taking a representative sample, you won't get a representative snapshot.

You get steely nerves playing poker.

When you get into statistical analysis, you don't really expect to achieve fame. Or to become an Internet meme. Or be parodied by 'The Onion' - or be the subject of a cartoon in 'The New Yorker.' I guess I'm kind of an outlier there.

We want to get 80%-85% of predictions right, not 100%. Or else we calibrated our estimates in the wrong way.

If you have reason to think that yesterday's forecast went wrong, there is no glory in sticking to it.

To the extent that you can find ways where you're making predictions, there's no substitute for testing yourself on real-world situations that you don't know the answer to in advance.