In the case of Iraq the quality of intelligence and the analysis of that intelligence was abysmally bad.

Iran is now much less worried about the US attacking them because of the mess in Iraq... They're testing the waters.

I have not seen the quantity and quality of the magnitude that I saw in Iraq. There are a few anthropologists in the world that have seen that - that much trauma in such a short period of time.

Finally, people from the Bush Administration argue that Iran is not really serious about making any nuclear deal that would require it to give up its nuclear weapons option and that Iran is likely to cheat on any deal in the future.

The most interesting discussion is about political calculations and how Iran weighs the risks and benefits of acquiring nuclear weapons capability.

No one can estimate with any precision how long this will take,