It is shaping up to be something more serious.

Because of the reduced U.N. presence on the border, any incident could be interpreted as a provocation.

What the region is looking for - and needs - is a power that guarantees stability through predictable behavior.

If they try to dominate, then we're probably going to see little brushfire rebellions breaking out in parts of Ethiopia, not at a national level, but as a voice of protest at the continuing hold on power of the EPRDF.

It is the most inclusive institution in the government and the one that enjoys the greatest legitimacy.

There is a genuine threat, there is no doubt the networks are still present and they retain the capacity to strike again. On the other hand, much more is known about these groups, there has been an intelligence surge in the last few years, they are kept under pressure.