It looks like manufacturing is still under pressure. We're getting to a stage of a two-speed economy where the manufacturing sector needs lower interest rates but the consumption side doesn't.

Everything is lining up for a rate cut. It seems the heat is coming off the economy, with consumer demand also slowing down.

This doesn't look like an economy that's rolling over. This looks like an economy that has shown resilience and continues to move ahead.

As CPIX (consumer price index less mortgage costs) continues to surprise on the downside and oil prices come down, pressure to cut rates will rise again.

The economy is shifting from consumption to investment growth. The long commodity boom will also promote spending on construction and engineering that will grow the economy further.

We've seen data from various sectors showing the economy is beginning to stabilize. Not only employment, but the manufacturing sector as well. And holiday retail sales, consumption and housing look OK. So, we have all these powerful stimulants that are going to contribute to growth as 2002 unfolds.