It's a very gloomy picture. We can reasonably expect a very weak economic picture for the first and second quarter.

It would be quite market-moving if the second-quarter GDP data comes in above consensus.

It would be quite market-moving if the second-quarter GDP data comes in above consensus,

The trade surplus figures showed strong exports and domestic demand. This shows the economy is robust enough to withstand a rate increase later this year, supporting the yen.

The markets have already priced in at least one rate hike and are beginning to price in the second rate hike by year-end. Combined with the steady recovery of the Japanese economy, those expectations are likely to push up the yen.

Press reports are pointing to a BOJ move as early as March, but I think the majority of market participants don't believe that story because such a shift could create volatility before fiscal year-end in March.