it's somewhat surprising how resilient the economy has been, despite higher energy prices.

I don't see any storm clouds on the economic horizon. We don't see any potential land mines or problem areas. Even an attack on the scale of 9/11 would not cause the economy to go into recession in the next two years.

There's just such an enormous demand from pension funds and insurance companies to match their assets with the liabilities of the boomer generation.

Flood damage does not tend to be as insured. The lack of insurance is likely to cause the recovery to be delayed,

Retailers are concerned, but they're not panicky,

There is no operating manual that says what a neutral fed funds rate is, but the Fed knows that it's higher than 3 percent,