Newly appointed Sen. Robert Menendez leads Tom Kean by the narrowest of margins only because there are more Democrats than Republicans in New Jersey.

Sen. Menendez holds a narrow lead in this race only because there are more Democrats than Republicans in New Jersey.

Sen. Menendez has a 6-point lead in his race for re-election mainly because New Jersey is a Democratic state more fed up with the Bush administration and the war in Iraq than it is with high taxes and the budget crisis at home.

The bottom line is that even when things are equal in New Jersey, the Democrats win.

If there were a third-party candidate on the ballot who is pro-choice, that candidate could draw heavily from Casey backers among liberal Democrats, enough to make it a close race.

The bottom line is, Katherine Harris's support is so low that she is down to just about the bottom of what you'd expect a Republican to get in Florida.