Our feeling is that because you have a new central banker, they are going to want to err on the side of restraint against inflation.

When the score is toted up, we think he has a legitimate claim to being the greatest central banker who ever lived.

Payrolls were well below the whisper number, so there's been a big sigh of relief in the market,

Now you are entering a much more uncertain period.

In the big oil shocks that really damaged the economy, the tax on the consumer was many times more than that, but that alone wasn't enough. You also had to have people worrying that prices were going higher forever.

The consumer is already somewhat vulnerable in the year ahead as the tax-cut effects fade. If we continue to see pressure from energy prices, consumer spending is almost sure to slow down some.