Russia is risking losing credibility as a reliable energy supplier by cutting off supplies to an external customer on the same day it takes over as leader of the G-8.

Russia is saying you can't have your cake and eat it. If you're in the Russian sphere of influence, you get cheap energy. If you aren't, you don't.

Russia is unable to increase its exports without cheap gas from Central Asia to compensate for a deficit on its domestic market.

The two groups are clearly vying for a dominant position in energy. The only thing we are sure of is that ultimately a state company will be dominant.

We are about to move into a new phase when Russian state-controlled energy companies are opened for investment with cooperative foreign firms. It makes sense to have someone with international experience ? either corporate or political ? leading that process at the head of those companies.

Dependency on Russia should be reduced. The diversification of energy supplies is a common project for the whole of Europe.