So we could be looking at at least a month without Iraqi oil.

[The DOE report] suggests that more product (such as heating oil) may be available in the week ahead, ... Adding to this, the U.S. 6-to-10 day forecast calls for above-normal temperatures in much of the U.S. northeast.

in the short term we could see a knee-jerk reaction higher.

You have to look at the series trend, and [prices] are definitely in an upward move.

OPEC has shown itself to be market-savvy by recognizing that waiting for the price band mechanism to kick-in could cause a slump well below $22 a barrel.

Compliance will improve from February levels, partly because the winter demand will not be there and also because of the fear that prices will slump if OPEC is not seen to be in firm control.