Such a 'flu shot' is now widely expected and would be unlikely to unsettle investors beyond a transitory period.

Models work when they are appropriate for the particular circumstance, but some of the best investment judgments over time have come when people recognized that models derived in other periods were broken or not directly relevant.

The basic conclusion is that 1999-2000 will bring further gains in corporate profits, mild-mannered inflation and a generally favorable outcome for equity prices. Increasing confidence that the economic expansion will continue through our newly-extended forecast horizon encourages a modest upward revision in stock price targets.

Investors believe it is simply not acceptable to be environmentally irresponsible.

We expect 1999 and 2000 to be years of ongoing profit expansion, with better aggregate gains than 1998, which was disappointing.

The principal conclusion is that we expect profit growth to continue through our new forecast horizon.