That's the right move for a whole variety of reasons and, if I were on the inside, that is what I would be arguing. There is the one and only way for the Supreme Court to start its term with nine members and a chief, and that is to nominate John Roberts.

I would predict he will keep his promise and appoint a justice in the mold of Scalia and Thomas, a strong judicial conservative. I don't buy the argument the president will pull his punches. That's not his style.

Ultimately, ... I think the president is unusually good at ignoring all kinds of outside pressure with an important decision like this and focusing on the merits and what's important for the long term.

This choice is exactly what it appears to be -- it's the ultimate vote of confidence by the president in a lawyer who has served as his lawyer in one capacity or another for a very long time. The president is very, very confident in his judgments about people, and he likes to reward loyalty.

The reason his name is popping up is he's probably the closest thing out there to John Roberts. And he's got even more of a full record that people on both sides of the aisle can evaluate.

Judge Gonzales would be the obvious choice for this next pick, but for the opposition of conservative groups.