The chairman now sounds notably more worried than previously that house prices have risen too much and that the downturn could have a severe effect on the U.S. economy.

House prices in San Diego have risen much more rapidly then in the U.S.. But, I think we can explain housing prices in most places, and if they're explainable that means we don't have a bubble.

The U.S. consumer roars back.

There is a more plausible explanation for the spending slowdown, namely the withdrawal of fiscal and monetary stimulus from a household sector whose finances remain stretched,

A year ago, it was not that difficult to predict six months in advance where they were going to be. That's going to be harder when you are at 5 percent and you think the economy is going to be weak enough to get them to cut rates.

Oil is the dog that didn't bark. It's neutral because it's not far away from the average of where it's been over the past year.