The dollar will probably stay strong, as the U.S. economy is holding up.

Strong economic figures will confirm the Japanese economy is doing better, reinforcing expectations of an end to the zero- interest-rate policy as early as the fourth quarter. That's yen positive for sure.

European economies are picking up. The German economy in particular is expanding, shown in yesterday's confidence figures, supporting the euro.

You don't need to think the economy is losing momentum.

Speculation about an early shift in policy will fitfully encourage yen-buying in the short term. That will become increasingly so as we head toward April.

Fukui will probably reiterate prospects for steady economic recovery. Even if Fukui says the same thing as before, some investors will use it as an excuse to buy the yen as the dollar is going through a short- term decline.