The expectation for an inventory build is built in across all the product areas with an outside risk of a surprise on heating oil.

Our expectation looking forward is that risk will rise broadly in line with the size of the loan book as it has over the last 12 months,

There isn't the spare capacity to make up for the missing production in the Gulf of Mexico. OPEC used to have 4 to 5 million barrels of spare capacity. That's down to about 1.5 million barrels a day this year.

It doesn't matter that the government opens the strategic reserves because there is very little slack in the refining business.

Nigeria has always been a difficult place and now they have targeted the offshore platforms. They've never done that before. Obviously, that's very dangerous.

With oil prices at $60 a barrel it was a foregone conclusion they were not going to cut. If you do see disruption from Nigeria, if you do see disruption from Iran, the oil price will go substantially higher from here. So OPEC is reluctant to start turning the taps off just now.