The Fed has been on 'autopilot' with its monetary tightening so that even bouts of weaker data, such as we saw after hurricane Katrina, failed to divert the Fed off course. But now, following the minutes of the December meeting, it is clear that policy will become more data dependent.
Steve Barrow
Related Strong figures on growth and inflation will reinforce expectations of higher Fed rates, supporting t... XINYI LU The data will certainly encourage views of a truncated Fed tightening cycle. ALAN RUSKIN But clearly any view on the Fed now is dependent on how the data comes through and hence we can expe... STEVE BARROW As the expectation is growing that the US Fed may end the rate hike cycle as early as its March meet... DAISUKE UNO There may be some comments or text which will offer Fed views on the recent soft economic data and m... MAMORU ASHIMOTO What makes the difference is the data that comes out after the May 10 Fed meeting. MATTHEW KASSEL The Fed is in data-dependent mode, and we've gotten a string of data that shows a lot of strength. DAVID GLOCKE CPI data was benign but the data was prior to Hurricane Katrina, ... Still, no one is quite sure abo... JOSEPH BATTIPAGLIA Broaddus just reminded everyone that the Fed is going to raise rates. He is clear that the inflation... DOMINIC KONSTAM Traders are coming in every morning with a bias to sell dollars. The market expects that irrespectiv... MICHAEL JANSEN The Fed comments were fairly unsurprising. They indicated that there is more tightening ahead, and t... JOSHUA SHAPIRO The Fed is on a data-dependent path and the data is showing that the economy is still robust. There ... JAN LAMBREGTS Last week the indications from the meetings and from some of the Fed speakers was: Yes, we're concer... KURT BRUNNER The message of solid growth and inflation at the top end of the comfort zone may mean that the Fed i... BRIAN FABBRI The market has been adapting in the last few days to the monetary policy adjustment in Europe and to... ALBERTO BERNAL The statement will not tell the final story. I believe the Fed finale really is data dependent. JACK MALVEY The Fed is now explicitly conducting monetary policy with the aim of supporting stock prices, IAN SHEPHERDSON The markets were hoping for more clear-cut evidence of what is happening with the economy. They will... BOB SINCHE We think the Fed is trying to manage market expectations on the pace of economic recovery and on whe... GEMMA WRIGHT Today's labor report could not have been more disheartening to those who thought the Fed had ended i... EUGENIO ALEMAN It takes pressure off the Fed to hike interest rates more dramatically [than a quarter point] in Aug... CARY LEAHEY It takes pressure off the Fed to hike interest rates more dramatically [than a quarter point] in Aug... CARY LEAHEY The reaction in the market has a lot to do with the perception that Katrina is a reason for the Fed ... JANET ENGELS Strong US economic data will put a brake on the dollar's downward trend, which was triggered by the ... KAZUHIRO NISHINA Strong U.S. economic data will put a brake on the dollar's downward trend, which was triggered by th... KAZUHIRO NISHINA The dollar's uptrend accelerated after the release of the Fed minutes and will remain firm before th... AKIHIRO TANAKA The dollar's uptrend accelerated after the release of the Fed minutes and will remain firm before th... AKIHIRO TANAKA The Fed's inaction suggests that [policy makers] expect a quick rebound -- we do too -- which is why... IAN SHEPHERDSON This is a Fed that has demonstrated excellent crisis management skills. But by the time we come to N... CHRIS PROBYN The idea that's been gaining currency in the market is the Fed pause theory, meaning that the Fed ra... JOSH STILES Even if the Fed skips raising rates at the next meeting, it has to be seen as a symbolic act and not... EDGAR PETERS I was in the camp that the Fed would pause, but there is nothing in anything any of the Fed members ... JOE FRANCOMANO So Indian policy has become institutionalized and the result has been that American people have beco... RUSSELL MEANS He is going to dance around the weeds a little bit, calling for the Fed to be data-dependent. ALAN DE ROSE Most people think the Fed is on hold so the rest of this month's data is not quite as important. JEFF PALMA What we're seeing in terms of currency movements - and it will probably continue at least over the n... MARC LEVESQUE I think we're going to see a worsening in the inflation data and that's going to keep the Fed on a t... CARL RICCADONNA It is quite clear that the markets understand Fed policy to a much better extent than before. My own... WILLIAM POOLE His performance as chairman of the Fed has been impressive, encompassing and overwhelmingly benefici... ALAN BLINDER His performance as chairman of the Fed has been impressive, encompassing, and overwhelmingly benefic... ALAN BLINDER We were short-dollar as our core view is that the Fed ended its tightening cycle on Jan. 31. ASHLEY DAVIES It is an established scientific fact that monetary policy has had virtually no effect on output and ... EDWARD C. PRESCOTT The Fed will keep raising rates as an insurance policy to prevent unwanted inflation. We haven't see... CONRAD DEQUADROS [Economist Robert Walters of Quicken Loans in Livonia, Mich., agreed.] The Fed is sticking to its gu... ROBERT WALTERS It's Fed watch day, so we're experiencing a bit of anxiety before the announcement. Of course, any i... PETER CARDILLO Given that the economic data will be strong, people will wonder why the Fed is not moving, which cou... LARA RHAME As we go into the balance of the year most people don't have the Fed on their radar screens anymore.... BRIAN JONES Our view is that the U.S. economy was on a solid footing by most indicators going into the shock. If... DEREK HOLT Audit the Fed is a bill that would politicize monetary policy, would bring short-term political pres... JANET YELLEN The 50-basis-point increase in May, combined with the previous moves by the Fed, and weaker economic... BOB LYNCH It seems we've had more than enough weak economic data to conclude the Fed will cut rates on June 27... BILL MEEHAN My reading is that there was concern in the financial community that with the absence of Greenspan, ... BARNEY FRANK So, while we are still left judging the incoming economic data for a read on policy - the end of the... TIMOTHY ROGERS Some weaker-than-expected economic data is supporting the plight of equities (Thursday), ... With si... BRYAN PISKOROWSKI My impression is that the market is correctly anticipating that the Fed is close to being finished w... JASON TRENNERT Judging from recent remarks, Fed officials seem to see the impact from Katrina as one-off and not de... KAORU KONDO One more rate hike late this month is a sure thing, but further tightening is data dependent. JASON WONG The minutes have fueled the fire for the dollar bears. The Fed is probably close to ending its tight... JEFF GLADSTEIN There are shifting expectations on whether the Fed will pause or not after its meeting next week. Si... CRAIG CHAN It confirms that the (Fed) was correct in pausing their tightening cycle at last week's meeting. STEVEN WOOD Right after Katrina it looked like a no-brainer. Uncertainties about where things were going as a re... CHARLES DUMAS We're in the range between 50 and 55 (in the ISM index) where the Fed often holds interest rates ste... GARY THAYER Unless we get a negative surprise on a piece of economic data that's really out of the ordinary, the... KEN TOWER I think they are. I think that the Fed either finished its tightening for this cycle, or it has 25 b... CHARLES CRANE A curve inversion will last until the Fed stops tightening. As long is the Fed keeps tightening and ... JAMES CARON Corporate leaders have indicated to the Fed that, right now, the outlook is murky. Long term, the Fe... ALLEN JACOBSON If inflation were to slow down some more, that would put off the date of any further tightening. But... HENRY WILLMORE The Fed is likely to make no change in its rate policy because it still see risks in the economic ou... RICHARD RIPPE The minutes didn't change the outlook for the interest rate moves priced into the market. The Fed is... MICHAEL DARDA We now believe that the first Fed rate hike will not come until December, and we continue to worry t... JOE ABATE How many ripples the FOMC statement sends across financial markets may essentially depend on whether... KENNETH BROUX How many ripples the FOMC statement sends across financial markets may essentially depend on whether... KENNETH BROUX The Fed is toward the end of its rate hikes. Equities and bonds got a bid because the Fed talked abo... JOSEPH LAVORGNA It reduces the impact of some of the softer data, but won't be a major factor for the Fed. DAVID SLOAN Given the market is looking for another rate hike at the end-March FOMC meeting, it seems likely tha... ASHLEY DAVIES [Overall, following the statement,] the market is fairly clear that the Fed will keep raising rates ... JEFF KLEINTOP The economic data fed into the theme that the economy is headed for a soft landing. BILL QUAN The benign inflation data and the belief that the Fed may be closer to the end than had previously b... TIMOTHY GHRISKEY The reason for this tremendous shift towards greater transparency is because of the growth and domin... BILL DUDLEY The GDP data was weak, but the key is new home sales. The Fed right now has one thing to worry about... FRANK HSU Pausing amidst robust data contradicts earlier statements that they are data dependent. If you were ... SCOTT GEWIRTZ Simply because the Fed is maintaining an accommodative monetary policy position doesn't mean they ke... MIKE RYAN The data should tend to encourage views that the Fed is correct and that inflation looks to be conta... ALAN RUSKIN This economy has a lot of momentum and seems intent on challenging the Fed to keep in under control.... CARL TANNENBAUM The markets are assuming that the Fed are finished tightening for the year, ... That presumption mig... SHERRY COOPER Given the data we've seen, one can't rule out a 50 basis point (one-half percentage point) hike. We'... BILL MEEHAN It's very unlikely for Fed to worry about month to month data changes, or even two months, as the ma... STEVEN WIETING I think he (Greenspan) made it very clear the Fed is still in a tightening mode. BILL HORNBARGER It is quite clear that the markets understand Fed policy to a much better extent than before. WILLIAM POOLE I'm still in the camp that yields are moving higher. As long as the data is strong, the Fed is going... JOSEPH SHATZ We were a little bit aggressive too early, trying to say the Fed is done. Now the data is continuing... TED AKE The Fed has stated pretty steadily that they are on this measured pace of tightening, and investors ... MARIA FIORINI RAMIREZ Our understanding of the best practice in monetary policy evolved during Alan Greenspan's tenure at ... BEN BERNANKE The market is looking for numbers that will add to the information set regarding what the Fed might ... ELLIOT PLATT We think the Fed will continue cutting rates, although less aggressively. We are expecting another [... BRUCE STEINBERG Giving a super-clear predictability on the course of monetary policy will not be good for any centra... MASUHISA KOBAYASHI In the longer term, it's going to be any additional suggestion as to how the Fed will handle monetar... TIM WILBRAHAM The Fed has been kind of on autopilot here for quite a while, ... Now all of a sudden they're going ... BRIAN BETHUNE There is some speculation the Fed is closer to halting its tightening cycle. MIKE MALPEDE The good economic data has quashed any idea that may have been about that the next move in interest ... TOM KENNY
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But if it's a slo... STEVE PREFONTAINE This is my last year at Oregon, and it means a lot to me. The people have been great to me up there,... STEVE PREFONTAINE If he's having a good day and running the right race, nobody can beat Frank Shorter at 10,000 me... STEVE PREFONTAINE Nobody likes tainted victories. STEVE PREFONTAINE No one will ever win a 5,000-meter by running an easy two miles. Not against me. STEVE PREFONTAINE What I want is to be number one. STEVE PREFONTAINE Every once in a while I think, 'What am I doing out here running, busting myself up? Life could ... STEVE PREFONTAINE Something inside of me just said 'Hey, wait a minute, I want to beat him,' and I just took o... STEVE PREFONTAINE Kids made fun of me because I was a slow learner, because I was hyperactive, because of a lot of thi... STEVE PREFONTAINE A race is a work of art that people can look at and be affected in as many ways they're capable ... STEVE PREFONTAINE When people go to a track meet, they're looking for something, a world record, something that ha... STEVE PREFONTAINE I have a positive mental attitude, and I think I'm divine, but I also think it takes a heck of a... STEVE PREFONTAINE My philosophy is that I'm an artist. I perform an art not with a paint brush or a camera. I perf... STEVE PREFONTAINE Some people create with words or with music or with a brush and paints. I like to make something bea... STEVE PREFONTAINE A lot of people run a race to see who is fastest. I run to see who has the most guts, who can punish... STEVE PREFONTAINE To hell with love of country - I compete for myself. STEVE PREFONTAINE I'm going to work so that it's a pure guts race at the end, and if it is, I am the only one ... STEVE PREFONTAINE It's not who's the best - it's who can take the most pain. STEVE PREFONTAINE Over the years, I've given myself a thousand reasons to keep running, but it always comes back t... 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