The Kremlin is very keen that whoever replaces Luzhkov should be a loyal and malleable figure.

People in power were brought up under the communist regime. All of this makes democracy weak and civil society still nascent.

Russia wants to restore its superpower status, and that includes putting these countries back into its orbit.

The shoulder-patting is still there, but the mutual trust that existed after Sept. 11 is gone. The reason is objective: there can't be a friendship between the heads of states while the bureaucracies of both nations view each other with distrust.

This is bound to have a negative effect on relations. Washington will see this as creating instability near the Russian border.

The stakes are high on both sides: for Russia this is a matter of principle and for the Americans that means safeguarding access to energy resources.