The odds are that things are going to be a little stronger than people anticipate in another month or so. With the exception of the labor market data, which will continue to stink.

We are talking about an economy averaging about 30 miles per hour in a 60-mph speed zone. That keeps pressure on the unemployment rate, forcing it to continue to rise. By summer, we could have 6.4 percent unemployment.

What you're seeing is a glut of gently used vehicles, and that's putting pressure on all vehicle prices.

In the long run, crowding out tends to mitigate the effects of fiscal policy.

The employment picture remains fairly grim, and that's having a dampening effect on measures of consumer confidence. And we have higher energy prices, which is another drag on consumer confidence and a 'tax' on consumer spending.

The stronger data virtually assure significant changes in the Fed's directive this week. The new directive will probably include a grudging acknowledgement of the stronger labor market and inflation statistics.