The result is there are economies which remain vulnerable to event risk, to a more challenging global environment, or to populism.

This is time for prudence among lenders and investors.

One cannot help but begin the year with the sense that uncertain times lie ahead. The world economy is in a much more fragile state.

There is a growing sense that the pattern of strong global growth that we have seen in the past few years is shifting now. The question is whether it will be gradual or abrupt.

While growth has been holding up relatively well, particularly in emerging market economies, there are considerable risks beneath the surface.

These imbalances, reflect in part in the rising US deficit as well as the massive surplus in China's current account, pose a threat to international trading relationships upon which much of the recent global prosperity has been built.