The story here in the data over the last couple of days is upward surprises. Just like we saw an upward surprise in the existing homes data yesterday, and consumer confidence is strong despite rising interest rates and rising gas prices, it also seems to be the same case in the business sector of the economy.

This is more of an economic brownout for New York than an economic blackout.

We will see a change in the drivers of economic growth with capital spending taking a lead. There is a little softness in consumer spending and the inflation data isn't looking that bad.

I think we're going to see a worsening in the inflation data and that's going to keep the Fed on a tightening track.

The strike is a tidal wave for New York - but at the national level, it ends up being more of a ripple.

Inflation is going to continue to rise based on the disruption from the hurricanes, high oil prices (and) a factory sector that has a very strong outlook. Also, there's a lot of positive news coming out of Japan and East Asia so there's going to be a real scramble for raw materials and that will eventually pass through to consumer prices.