The survey has provided a relatively good one-quarter lead on annual US GDP growth over the past 15 or so years - the correlation is 0.69.

Economic growth is rebounding after the temporary weakness in the third quarter. Rising export prices are providing a huge boost to the economy, which is fueling profits and prompting companies to hire.

It's part of the past that we have between us now. We can't get away from that piece of it. So what we're hopeful of doing is perhaps using this first anniversary of it as a point from which to move forward.

Following the accident, there's downside risks to exports in January, so the trade deficit may be wider than we expect.

Rising business investment may have boosted demand for imported goods and stalled a further improvement in the trade deficit in January. We still are upbeat on exports, with commodity prices rising and strong global demand.

Wages aren't at a level that's going to prompt the central bank to raise interest rates. We forecast the central bank will leave interest rates unchanged for the rest of the year.