The U.S. economy is very resilient and the Fed will raise rates at least two more times next year. The presence of oil money and foreign central banks has put a cap on long-term yields.

We've seen purchases of bonds receding. Investors cannot be bullish on Treasuries until the Fed stops raising rates.

That could cause the Fed to raise rates faster.

Now it looks like the Fed might raise rates at the January meeting, and that might be it.

The market is worried that the Fed might continue to raise rates for longer than what was previously expected, that rates could go above 5 percent.

We got a green light last month when the Fed decided not to raise rates, then we got another green light when the bond market rallied last Friday, ... The balloon is still blowing up. I'm staying defensive. I still say the bubble is going to break. I just don't know when.