FastSaying

The unit growth is not so strong as to offset the price declines they're seeing in their chips.

Dan Niles

Growth

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Slightly, to my mind, implies 3- to 5-percent growth. I think most people were looking at the 7- to 8-percent range for the fourth quarter.
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Dell reaffirmed their guidance for the third quarter, but gave no guidance going forward. They also said that industry growth for the third quarter was going to be worse than expected.
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Contract manufacturers have seen their inventory grow 104 percent year-to-date, versus revenue growth of 52 percent, while distributors have seen a 24 percent increase in inventory in the past six months, versus a revenue increase of 15 percent.
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Intel sees no signs of a pickup and would not call this quarter the bottom for revenues. We do not think the bottom will be reached until the summer, at the earliest, and remain cautious on the stock.
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Our stance has been in big enterprise applications, it was obvious that people were buying ahead to get their systems ready for Y2K. The mainframe business is a dying business, and our feeling was IBM would see it in the third and fourth quarters because the growth patterns weren't normal.
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