The upside is the culture of entrepreneurship that comes from education and the belief in opportunities. It creates a very optimistic outlook.

Today's exceptionally tight market gives marginal producers unprecedented power and greater geopolitical importance. They have the ability to press. They have leverage.

Without question, this is the worst political-risk year we've seen for energy supplies since 1973.

The Iranians can ramp this up or back as they're pressed. And thus far, they have shown every inclination to do precisely that.

Why are the Iranians pushing so aggressively instead of biding their time, like North Korea did? The obvious answer is that Iran is in a far stronger position. Iran can respond in ways that can be very painful to the international community. Iran has leverage.

Oil markets are already reacting. We've already seen that Iran is willing to talk about using oil as a weapon, and I think the markets are taking that threat seriously.