There is a risk today (Thursday) of euro/dollar trading weaker and of a test of the resistance area around 1.2200/1.2170 dollars, particularly if the US data is better than expected.

At present there is a probability of just under 70 percent of the Fed raising interest rates to 5.0 percent by May.

If these expectations are not at least confirmed by the meeting minutes, market participants might feel inclined to square their dollar longs.

Most of us expect him to reiterate the Fed's commitment to fighting inflation and as long as he does that the dollar should hold up relatively well. This could be the trigger for the next move higher in the dollar.

The U.S. labor market continues to tighten and the implication is the Fed will need to raise rates. Anything above 250,000 jobs today and the dollar will continue to push higher.

I don't think the market will push far before the Fed statement. If they remove the sentence implying some further measured tightening then the dollar is at risk.