There is further weakness ahead for consumers. House prices are falling, home construction is soft, consumer confidence is down and oil prices have risen.

The Reserve Bank has no need to tighten or to ease rates.

We don't think there is anything to warrant a rate move from the central bank. Even though building approvals rose in November, housing is still in correction mode.

Employment is likely to be much weaker going forward and the jobless rate will keep rising as the economy cools. Interest rates are on hold.

We've been expecting exports to pick up some of the slack of the easing domestic demand and we're not seeing this to date. So clearly there are capacity constraints out there that remain.

We still think commodity prices are at their peak and will gradually come off, but we've just pushed out the timing a little bit.