There is much on the horizon to support household incomes, which may well prevent the slowdown the Reserve Bank expects.

If they don't see that evidence, it may well regenerate the case for a further rate hike.

It's not an environment to be seriously thinking about cutting interest rates. The economy is going through a soft landing, rather than a hard one. Inflationary pressures probably won't have much chance to dissipate.

Forget the interpretations of recession. We're still talking about a relatively stretched economy. There is no justification for the Reserve Bank to abandon the firm interest- rate outlook.

There's been a definite negative turn in sentiment toward the kiwi. This reflects all those macroeconomic factors that we thought would inevitably start to be a noose around its neck. The growth profile is weakening.

The presumption that inflation will naturally recede to the middle of the target band seems a courageous one. Inflation is likely to be higher than many expect over the coming year or two.