There's a signaling going on with this spending. Democrats who are on the margin might feel more free to support Judge Roberts this time, particularly if they feel they might oppose the next nominee.

Perhaps the 2005 filibuster wars depleted interest group war chests in advance of the recent nomination battles. Whatever the reason, the air wars in the federal confirmation process were tame compared with recent advertising in state Supreme Court elections, where interest groups spent more than $7 million in 2004.

After lagging behind their foes all summer and fall, liberals are turning up the heat and conservatives are unlikely to cede them the field as the confirmation hearings approach.

The two have set a high standard that the department intends to maintain. The investigation continues vigorously.

No major group has spent a dime on television ads in the last week.

Polls and focus groups show younger blacks less likely to identify themselves as Democrats, and more likely to support partial privatization of Social Security, school vouchers and the abolition of race-based preferences. This spells trouble for the Democratic Party and its monolithic black vote.