These losses may reflect the fact that consumers facing higher energy prices and falling real [inflation-adjusted] wages are cutting back on discretionary spending.
Jared Bernstein
Related The problem isn't simply that families are facing higher prices, particularly at the pump. It's also... JARED BERNSTEIN People are focusing on the impact of higher energy prices on the consumer instead of focusing on the... DREW MATUS Consumers, with higher energy prices and higher interest rates, are going to have cut back somewhere... ESMAEL ADIBI We believe that consumer spending is going to bear the brunt of higher energy prices that we have se... JOSHUA SHAPIRO Concerns over (higher energy prices) feeding into higher wages have so far not materialized, which h... MICHAEL PENN In general, the economy is proving to be resilient to energy and gas price pressure. It's on a growt... MICHAEL ENGLUND These results cast more cold water on the notion that if nondiscretionary spending on energy swells,... KEN MAYLAND It is being alleged that the Federal Government is 'cutting' spending. In fact, we are not &... CRAIG L. THOMAS If we saw a milder winter, or a reduction in energy prices and commodity prices, that will certainly... LARRY PERUZZI [They also focus on two areas - healthcare and energy - where inflation is eating away at spending p... JARED BERNSTEIN The longer you see energy prices at these levels, the more likely it seeps into broader measures of ... BILL DAVISON Both [the French and the euro-zone data] reflect higher oil prices rather than any rise in underlyin... GWYN HACCHE I continue to believe that the effects of higher gas prices on the consumer are overestimated. Most ... RICHARD HASTINGS Higher fuel and energy prices have hit purchasing power, amid a high inflation rate. JEFF ADAMS Higher energy prices have taken their toll of hopes for top-line growth. 'Cost-cutting' as a driver ... DAVID BOWERS That's a prime example of where higher energy prices can rein in core [non-energy] inflation. JOHN LONSKI The Fed is concerned that higher energy costs may give an adverse impact on growth rather than posin... HIDEHIKO MAEJIMA This is coming in an environment where consumers are being challenged by higher interest rates and e... CARL TANNENBAUM Moreover, the four motors of consumption -- that is wages, inflation, unemployment and consumer conf... EMMANUEL FERRY The inflation-adjusted number, the finite supply of oil, and the growing demand for oil from one-thi... EMANUEL BALARIE Energy issues are stronger on higher oil prices. HIDEYUKI SUZUKI This data supports the idea that payrolls will be strong again in August. At some point employers ar... ELLEN BEESON I think that fears of inflation are overblown, and that when we consider energy prices have pulled b... EDWARD KEON Probably the most critical impact of higher energy prices is their ability to weaken consumer spendi... GAIL FOSLER Any bets on dollar weakness will be a bet that higher energy prices will divert consumer spending, w... JEFF GLADSTEIN We expect the Fed to focus on the risks to higher inflation caused by higher energy prices, supply-c... COLIN LUNDGREN When consumers are burdened with heavy debt loads, rising interest rates, higher energy costs, no pe... BERNARD BAUMOHL This is a big surprise, it's the core of inflation that's falling. Energy prices were expected to fa... DOMINIQUE BARBET We're going to have high energy prices, a little bit more inflation. Underlying inflation is going t... DONALD RATAJCZAK With higher gasoline prices putting a dent in consumer spending and underlying inflation looking to ... ANGUS CAMPBELL Inventory levels for steel products are now getting high and suppliers are facing falling prices. KATSUNORI HIRAI Higher oil prices may be partly passed through to core inflation at least for a time, JANET YELLEN If these countries do not increase their investments substantially, we will end up with difficulties... FATIH BIROL These inflation effects should fade even if energy prices remain elevated, so long as monetary polic... BEN BERNANKE Agriculture came in better and remittances continued to be good. These two factors reduced the impac... JOEY CUYEGKENG At a time when high energy prices are wreaking havoc on consumers, the Department of Energy should b... KATHERINE KENNEDY There's a very widespread fear that if property prices go down and the refinancing boom goes away, t... DAN MCNEELA Those who think that energy prices are headed back into the $30's are dreaming. A $50-$60 trading ra... DAVID KOTOK Well, there's no doubt about the fact that, that higher energy prices lead to greater conservati... JOHN W. SNOW We are starting to see a change in consumer behavior. Consumers are cutting back because of high pri... MICHAEL FITZPATRICK Today's figures show that in the fourth quarter of 2005, consumers simply ran out of steam. When con... CHRISTIAN WELLER It appears that the threshold has been reached where consumers are feeling the pinch of higher gas p... RON PAUL The fact that investors are chasing commodity stocks on the back of higher oil prices, instead of se... HITOSHI YAMAMOTO The increase in the rate is intended to address possible second-round effects on consumer prices com... AMANDO TETANGCO Consumers need an uplift, not a kick in the teeth. If we don't get them spending soon, policy makers... MICHAEL DICKS Median wages of production workers, who comprise 80 percent of the workforce, haven't risen in 3... ROBERT REICH Consumers are beginning to feel the impact of higher oil prices in their pockets. Less confidence me... LARRY PERUZZI The tough economy has put tremendous pressure on fourth-quarter sales performance and increased comp... BOB NARDELLI Consumers report that the high gasoline prices are having a negative impact on their frequency of sh... MICHAEL NIEMIRA Models used to describe and predict inflation commonly distinguish between changes in food and energ... JANET YELLEN In the wake of record oil prices, consumers and fleet managers are looking for relief on ways to mee... BEVERLY MILLER Higher energy prices are requiring industry and commerce to examine the costs and efficiency of ener... GORDON BROWN If crude oil prices hit $60 a barrel, that's going to stir up old fears of higher energy prices and ... ANDRE BAKHOS Bonds are a little bit expensive right now. Consumers are spending a little bit aggressively, which ... JAMES DUTKIEWICZ The Monetary Policy Committee is back facing a familiar dilemma a housing market that is recovering ... GEOFFREY DICKS The employment picture remains fairly grim, and that's having a dampening effect on measures of cons... JOE ABATE Following the higher-than-expected headline producer price inflation data for January... (Tuesday's ... HOWARD ARCHER Higher energy prices stemming from the hurricane season and fundamental energy supply shortages are ... DAVID HUETHER Increasing home prices and the ability of consumers to cash out their growing home equity has been a... DENNIS JACOBE The companies are profiting from these higher prices. This is becoming a familiar picture among ener... EDWIN SLAGHEKKE There is further weakness ahead for consumers. House prices are falling, home construction is soft, ... JARROD KERR Inflation, on the surface, does not appear to be a concern, but it's obvious that prices for some it... CHARLES LIEBERMAN Inflation, on the surface, does not appear to be a concern, but it's obvious that prices for some it... CHARLES LIEBERMAN A study of the history of wages back through the years indicates clearly that when the cost-of-livin... CHARLES E. WILSON We had expected a snap-back in consumer spending after a decline in May, and that's what these numbe... LYNN REASER It's very simple. The energy market was up real strongly. That's part of it, as people consistently ... DAN VAUGHT Our current view is that our forecast is likely to be significantly exceeded. Higher prices are refl... LIAM BAILEY We see slippage in retail construction as a function of increases in energy costs, which cuts into d... CLIFF BREWIS Companies are doing well, but aren't passing their wealth on to employees. Consumer spending is unde... JACQUES CAILLOUX Most likely the higher prices will slow growth, ... But there is the growing threat that we get a co... MARK ZANDI Higher crude oil prices and other factors mean consumers are in for another year of price volatility... DAVE CARLSON The pool of available labor is diminishing and worker efficiency is growing more slowly. This adds u... CARL TANNENBAUM The bottom line is this bill is likely to bring higher prices and no increase in energy supplies, wh... JOE SPARANO Consumers have more buying power due to the continued fall in unemployment, as well as higher wages. DANIEL CHAN You have people concerned about inflation picking up, you have higher oil prices, and you have the t... JEFFREY CHRISTIAN With crude prices forecast to remain strong for the remainder of the year, consumers can expect, on ... CATHY HAY Nearly all of their savings comes from this cut to total discretionary spending. That does nothing f... BRIAN M. RIEDL Despite oft-mentioned concerns about higher energy and commodity prices, a lower growth rate for con... DONALD A. NORMAN People are increasingly concerned, given what Wal-Mart said, that higher gas prices are going to hur... ALAN RIFKIN We have generally not tried to forecast fuel price changes. However, we have routinely adjusted our ... BOB MCADOO You'd think higher energy would put a lid on stocks, but the market's going up. People seem to be mo... BOB BASEL Credit losses are very low now, but mortgage lenders need to be prepared for higher losses, ... Home... DONALD POWELL Today's numbers show that consumers are not very optimistic about the economy. As a result, we will ... GARY THAYER We believe that the current share prices of our subsidiaries are undervalued and do not reflect the ... LANCE GOKONGWEI That's just a fact - that union members have higher wages and better benefits, and collective bargai... BERNIE HORN The U.S. is spending a lot of money getting these rigs back up and running. We could see prices pull... ASHOK SEKAR Household spending growth has been particularly solid in 2015, with purchases of new motor vehicles ... JANET YELLEN Because food and energy prices are volatile, it is often helpful to look at inflation excluding thos... JANET YELLEN September sales were surprisingly resilient in the face of significantly higher gasoline prices. Whi... EMME KOZLOFF Given all the other spending we're having to do for homeland defense and the military, my suspicion ... PAUL KASRIEL Our real big concern is that the combination of rising bond yields, sustained high energy prices and... ABHIJIT CHAKRABORTTI As consumers are clearly changing their spending attitude, the retail sector may continue to benefit... HARUKI TAKAHASHI Consumers have clearly shown a willingness to pay for content, but no consumer has a bottomless pit ... TIM HANLON The higher energy costs will put a squeeze on both businesses and households. They're spending so mu... NARIMAN BEHRAVESH The broad impact of this storm is going to be on energy prices and how that feeds through to the res... EDMUND COWART rise in inflationary pressures caused by higher energy prices. ALAN WILLIAMSON Treasuries can still fall some more. Some people are worried about the outlook for inflation because... MASATSUGU YAMAMOTO Look for renewed debate on whether rising producer prices will be passed through to consumers in the... DEREK HOLT Strip out higher oil prices, and Europe doesn't have an inflation problem. We're still bullish for t... STUART THOMSON Our blood is on the market and stock prices are falling. BRANDON KELLUM
More Jared Bernstein
The job market is slowly tightening. We are wringing out the slack. But we're only six months into a... JARED BERNSTEIN The problem isn't simply that families are facing higher prices, particularly at the pump. It's also... JARED BERNSTEIN This report may give pause to some of the optimists looking for a stronger second half, ... We need ... JARED BERNSTEIN This decline [in the jobless rate] is certainly the largest drop we've seen in recent months, so it ... JARED BERNSTEIN We are in the midst of a protracted wage slump, ... a troubling trend that is largely going unnotice... JARED BERNSTEIN It's one thing to run faster in place when the rest of the economy is stagnating as well. But it cut... JARED BERNSTEIN Many of our overall indicators are percolating along just fine, but the growth continues to elude ma... JARED BERNSTEIN The economy's doing fine, except if you figure in working families. We're posting great numbers in a... 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JODIE BERNSTEIN If someone approaches you on the street or on the subway, and flatters you by saying, 'You've got th... JODIE BERNSTEIN Internet con artists are bad actors without borders. JODIE BERNSTEIN This is an entirely new and unexpected discovery. It has allowed us to glimpse the molecular strateg... BRAD BERNSTEIN It's his night, and it's going to be a great night. This (victory) only adds to it for him, I'm sure... BRANDON BERNSTEIN My dad told me that there are times in this business when it seems like nothing is going to ever go ... BRANDON BERNSTEIN I think I just did. It'll be nice to go to the ceremony and have this win in our pocket. BRANDON BERNSTEIN No matter how you slice it, Florida is well represented on both lists. ROBERT BERNSTEIN So areas that were high and dry even a few centuries ago ... a lot of these settlements are now unde... DAVID BERNSTEIN It's no secret the level of the oceans is rising, something that's been accelerated by climatic warm... 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SANFORD BERNSTEIN At a minimum, you're trading off two brands that had been the source of a lot of headaches where ove... SANFORD BERNSTEIN I think that the company still has a good handle on what its longer-term strategy has to be -- a div... SANFORD BERNSTEIN It's recognition that the board feels comfortable that he's the right guy for the job, that the comp... SANFORD BERNSTEIN This is a company that's entering the sweet spot of their restructuring savings, ... I don't think p... SANFORD BERNSTEIN Consumers have a strong reason to procrastinate, ... There will be more and more deals and bargains,... SANFORD BERNSTEIN When we seek to understand liberty, equality, progress, constitutional governance, separation of chu... R.B. BERNSTEIN Jefferson feared that Hamilton had plans radically at odds with the Constitution. As he saw it, Hami... R.B. BERNSTEIN I've been all over the world and I've never seen a statue of a critic. LEONARD BERNSTEIN From New Zealand to Japan, for many it is a life dream to hike the most famous trail in the world. DANNY BERNSTEIN No movie or television actor is doing theater for the money. It's about other kinds of satisfaction. JED BERNSTEIN It was totally unnecessary, ... The only real difference in the remake is that these days, the scree... MATTHEW BERNSTEIN Between the graham crackers and the warm milk. RON BERNSTEIN [Finally, there's the bugaboo of any computerization project—-making sure your initial data is co... MICHAEL BERNSTEIN If you tried to pass Davis-Bacon again, it would never pass -- and Bush wouldn't sign it if it did p... DAVID BERNSTEIN Do what you know best; if you're a runner, run, if you're a bell, ring IGNAS BERNSTEIN Alcoa's earnings appears to resemble a biblical scripture because it can be interpreted in many ways... SANFORD BERNSTEIN