This is a big amount of cash to be giving back. The figures will be even higher in 2006, when the increases in dividend work through.

Cash flow is resilient, and has been some years. There's scope for operators to reduce shareholder returns if they need to, although we don't think they will do that. It's not like 2001 when credit measures were so tight it could only mean distressed asset sales and rights issues. It's not like that now.

M&A is not the magic circle. But it is important, and the focus is more and more on equity than on credit quality.

We are looking for protection. We try to work out how well-equipped a company is to protect the business model and the market position it has now.

The trend is clearly on the negative side.

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