[This is] a significant downside shock, and perhaps a sign falling consumer sentiment is rattling companies, ... A further drop next month will see the [Federal Reserve] easing again.

We fully expect sentiment to drop sharply, putting in place the conditions for much softer consumer spending numbers.

Looking forward, downside risks remain, and there is clearly no bar on further easing,

It is impossible to tell how much of the drop simply reflects the inability of the seasonal adjustment to cope with the end of the auto retooling shutdowns, and how much is due to the underlying trend.

It is impossible to tell how much of the drop simply reflects the inability of the seasonal adjustment to cope with the end of the auto retooling shutdowns, and how much is due to the underlying trend,

This increase reflects the upturn in the markets in recent weeks; any further gain in the near-term requires a further firming of stocks,