This is one seasonal investing method that holds some water, given its robust track record. The summer months are a good time for remaining bulls to think about pulling in the reins.

During the past few years, earnings have done far better than what economic growth alone would have suggested. Interestingly, we have found that the wider-than-expected profit margin, courtesy of surprisingly benign cost pressures, has helped turn good earnings performance into outstanding earnings performance in recent years.

I just don't think the post-Fed environment is going to be what people think it will be. Things will look a lot more like the 1960s.

The difference between the '80s and '90s and now is that inflation and interest rates are already low.

Short of a significant decline in oil prices, we do not foresee a likely catalyst that would spur the market significantly higher at this time. The equity market will likely remain in a transition phase, which could see the strong equity market uptrend of 2003 evolve into a slight downtrend in early 2005.

The lesson from the 1960s ... is not to get too excited when the Fed is finished this time around, but to wait until leading indicators begin to reaccelerate before assuming an aggressive position in equities again.