Traders are coming in every morning with a bias to sell dollars. The market expects that irrespective of the data, the Fed is going to pause after its next meeting.

If it's 25 [basis points] and the bias is neutral, they're going to sell it off. If it's 50 [basis points] and neutral, they'll sell it off. You'll probably see a smaller bout of selling if it's 50 points, because although that would mean the economy is doing worse than we've thought, it would also signal that the Fed is not going to cut again for a while.

I think on the margin the U.S. data makes currency traders more hesitant to put on strong positions. The U.S. economy is still growing at a strong pace, and the Fed might have to raise rates longer than anticipated.

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The market pauses here because everyone is very cautious about new data,

The sell-off in oil damped demand for some metals yesterday in London and New York. Traders in China are worried there might be a chain reaction of funds selling metals to take profits.