Uncharacteristically, the president's ratings have slipped most among his core constituents -- Republicans and conservatives.

The Republicans were making gains through the first four years of the administration - and they could have consolidated those gains and made further gains, ... I don't want to preclude anything, but with 38 percent approval ratings, Republicans gains are going to be hard to come by. More likely they will experience reversals.

All of this intensifies existing concerns that the public has about this administration.

It's a very complicated picture, with people having conflicting views. It's not simply thumbs-up or thumbs-down.

Over three October surveys, he's steadily increased the percentage of people who say he is likable, honest and able to get things done; the qualifications gap between him and Gore is also much diminished. There is nothing here that would lead me to say that there are signs of a nascent Gore movement; it is all pushing toward Bush.

Every indication in our poll is either unchanged or positive in Bush's direction.